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And as the saying completes itself, \u201cnot everything that counts can be counted\u201d.<\/p>\n
Celtic is at decision point around entrenched governance failure, strategic mismanagement, and a widening chasm between the Club’s custodians and its lifeblood\u2014the supporters.<\/p>\n
The events of the last six months\u2014the admission by the Interim Chairman that “mistakes have been made,” the managerial chaos, the failure to qualify for the Champions League, the resulting financial volatility and the continued shameful collective punishment of the Green Brigade \u2014have proven conclusively that the current governance model is incapable of self-correction. The Board’s response has been reactive, insular, and fundamentally misaligned with the long-term interests of the Club.<\/p>\n
I wrote in a couple of previous articles about how Celtic is juxtaposed against much smaller asset scale organisations who continually outperform it. Translated into plain English as \u201chow pish Celtic are in European terms in comparison to, say Brugge\u201d.<\/p>\n
I write this the day after Bodo exited the Champions League and interestingly on the same day an old Dermot Desmond interview from 1999 talking about making \u201cCeltic bigger than Manchester United\u201d. As Celtic lurches towards the end of the season, the miracle of potential success is still alive thanks in the main to Martin O\u2019Neill. And, let\u2019s be frank, despite the board and executive management of Celtic plc.<\/p>\n
The notion of a fan ownership model I think is now more than topical. It should be the guiding and sole light for any new initiative. Anything that promises anything less is simply a vehicle for ego and access.<\/p>\n
IF I WAS GOING THERE I WOULDN\u2019T START FROM HERE \u2013 BUT FCUK IT<\/strong><\/p>\n This document sets out a detailed financial and strategic plan to acquire the necessary shareholding, oust the incumbent Board, and install a new, professionally-led, fan-aligned governance structure. It\u2019s only purpose is to start a discussion. The financial model is aggressive but achievable, leveraging the Club’s own strength, activist capital, and the mobilised passion of the global Celtic support. It\u2019s likely full of holes, and many would say impossible. But to force change we need unreasonable thinking. All progress depends on the unreasonable man.<\/p>\n If you boil it down to corporate bullshit speak, we need a hostile takeover of Celtic. I\u2019ll frame a lot of the below in that lens.<\/p>\n As a fan base, the target should not just be ownership; it should be\u00a0liberation<\/strong>\u00a0from a failed stewardship. The goal of this article is to maybe draw the veneer away from perception that somehow we\u2019re stuck with this lot. We\u2019re most definitely not.<\/p>\n THE STRATEGIC RATIONALE: WHY A HOSTILE APPROACH IS NECESSARY<\/strong><\/p>\n Desmond\u2019s recent entrenchment and statements are de facto a \u201ccome and get me\u201d. Nothing less than a \u201clook at the size of my baws\/pockets. If you want it come beg to take it\u201d.<\/p>\n If we take him at face value, a negotiated transaction is most likely no longer a viable path. The following factors compel a hostile approach:<\/p>\n Outwith the above, a look at Celtic PLC’s share structure presents both challenges and opportunities.<\/p>\n Key Thresholds:<\/strong><\/p>\n <\/p>\n In all of the context above, to succeed, any offer to the existing incumbents (\u2018you spelled c**ts incorrectly\u2019 \u2013 ed) must be compelling enough to overcome shareholder inertia and loyalty to the current regime. This requires a\u00a0control premium<\/strong>.<\/p>\n \u201cWhat the fcuk is that and how do we get there?\u201dI hear you ask. Well, eTims can\u2019t afford the Margot Robbie in a bath tub scene from The Big Short but we do promise we\u2019ll include it in the prospectus. If you can follow the table below this is how we land at a valuation and control premium. (and if you haven\u2019t seen the Margot Robbie scene it\u2019s here. Same pitch, slightly different subject matter<\/a>)<\/p>\n Calculation of Offer Price:<\/strong><\/p>\n This represents a significant premium to the undisturbed share price and values the club at a level that is hard for shareholders to ignore. That said, if you\u2019re Dermot and money isn\u2019t the concern then it\u2019s to the left of him that all efforts should focus. To that end the work Celtic Supporters Ltd is doing should not be dismissed as purely an ego trip. Tho it most likely is. But hey, someones gotta grift.<\/p>\n WHERE THE FCUK DOES \u00a3164.5M COME FROM \u2013 THIN AIR?<\/strong><\/p>\n There\u2019s a billion ways to raise this. From 100% acquisition via \u2018Wealth off the Radar Billionaires\u2019 (bless \u2018em), to Investment Funds (eh, nope), to US Investment arms actively seeking football clubs (albeit with same funds actively profiting from bombing footballers and pitches in occupied Palestine so, again, nope and you can fcuk right off). The point being, most corporate money is dirty. Pick your poison on this one. However getting this shower out of doge \u2013 e.g. a hostile takeover \u2013 most likely will require a more aggressive, activist-oriented capital structure.<\/p>\n Here’s one way of doing it \u2013 and in case you need a bit more information on these terms etc, here\u2019s Margot Robbie in a bathtub\u2026<\/a><\/p>\n Total Funding:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a3164.5 million<\/strong><\/p>\n CONGRATULATIONS FIDO<\/strong><\/p>\n As I mentioned, this is one version of a million ways to go about it. But it is viable. And in the maelstrom of this season I\u2019ve yet to see anything else out there that opens the debate. In the follow up to this I\u2019ll lay out a series of tactical steps post acquisition that allow the fan base to take genuine ownership and direction of the Club into the medium and long term.<\/p>\n I\u2019ll also incorporate any feedback or steer from \u201cfolks who know better\u201d into it.<\/p>\n But this isn\u2019t a difficult transaction. It\u2019s achievable. It\u2019s reasonable.<\/p>\n And it ends the bloodsucking of the soul of Celtic by money.<\/p>\n And for a fraction of the cost of what America and Israel dropped in bombs on occupied Palestine in the last 24 hours.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" And as the saying completes itself, \u201cnot everything that counts can be counted\u201d. Celtic is at decision point around entrenched governance failure, strategic mismanagement, and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p2J7If-509","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19229"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=19229"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19229\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":19230,"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/19229\/revisions\/19230"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=19229"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=19229"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/etims.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=19229"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n \nFactor<\/td>\n Observation<\/td>\n Implication<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n Entrenched Leadership<\/strong><\/td>\n The Board, despite recent changes, remains dominated by long-serving individuals with deep personal and business ties to the major shareholder. The Interim Chairman’s statement, while acknowledging mistakes, offers no credible plan for fundamental reform.<\/td>\n They will not willingly cede control. A voluntary sale is unlikely.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Major Shareholder Stance<\/strong><\/td>\n Dermot Desmond holds a significant stake and has been the ultimate backstop of the current regime for over 30 years. There is no indication he supports a transition to fan ownership.<\/td>\n His stake represents the single largest obstacle. Any successful takeover must either win him over (unlikely) or circumvent him.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Valuation Gap<\/strong><\/td>\n The incumbent Board will likely resist any offer they deem to undervalue the Club, even if the offer reflects a fair market price adjusted for recent turmoil. Their perception of value may be disconnected from market realities.<\/td>\n A premium will be required to force their hand and appeal to other shareholders.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Urgency of Reform<\/strong><\/td>\n The Club cannot afford another cycle of instability. The new manager (Martin O’Neill interim) requires a stable, strategic environment. Every day of delay under the current regime prolongs the risk of further sporting and reputational damage.<\/td>\n Time is of the essence. A protracted negotiation is not an option.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n\n
\n \nShare Class<\/td>\n Voting Rights<\/td>\n Key Holders<\/td>\n How to Win<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n Ordinary Shares<\/strong><\/td>\n Full voting rights.<\/td>\n ~94.9m shares in issue. Wide dispersal including The Bank of New York (Nominees) (~16.8m), Christopher Trainer (~10.4m), James Keane (~5.6m).<\/td>\n Primary Target.<\/strong>\u00a0A public offer to all Ordinary shareholders at a compelling premium is the core of the strategy. Success requires >50% of voting rights.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Convertible Preferred Ordinary Shares (CPO)<\/strong><\/td>\n Convertible to Ordinary Shares (with voting rights) at shareholder’s election.<\/td>\n ~12.65m shares held by a mix of institutional and private investors.<\/td>\n Secondary Target.<\/strong>\u00a0An offer that includes a mechanism for conversion or direct purchase of these shares would add to the voting pool.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Convertible Cumulative Preference Shares (CCP)<\/strong><\/td>\n Non-voting (unless dividends are in arrears, which they are not). Convertible to Ordinary Shares.<\/td>\n ~15.6m shares.<\/td>\n Value, not control.<\/strong>\u00a0These do not provide immediate voting power but represent future Ordinary Shares upon conversion. An offer must address them to achieve 100% ownership.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n
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\n \nValuation Method<\/td>\n Fair Value Range<\/td>\n To Win Bid Premium<\/td>\n Offer Price<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n \n Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)<\/strong><\/td>\n \u00a3160m – \u00a3200m<\/td>\n +20% – 30%<\/td>\n N\/A<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Comparable Company Analysis (Comps)<\/strong><\/td>\n \u00a3150m – \u00a3220m<\/td>\n +20% – 30%<\/td>\n N\/A<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Precedent Transactions<\/strong><\/td>\n \u00a3140m – \u00a3190m<\/td>\n +25% – 35%<\/td>\n N\/A<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Calculated Equity Value (based on \u00a3180m EV)<\/strong><\/td>\n \u00a3102.7m<\/strong><\/td>\n +30%<\/strong><\/td>\n ~\u00a3133.5m<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n \n
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\n Source of Funds<\/strong><\/td>\n Amount (\u00a3m)<\/strong><\/td>\n Instrument<\/strong><\/td>\n Terms & Counterparty<\/strong><\/td>\n Rationale<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n\n \n Activist Equity \/ Anchor Investors<\/strong><\/td>\n 50.0<\/strong><\/td>\n Ordinary Shares (Post-Takeover) \/ Warrants<\/td>\n High-net-worth individuals, family offices, and supporters with significant capital who are aligned with the mission. They receive equity in the new entity.<\/td>\n Provides the initial firepower and credibility to launch a bid. These investors are motivated by reform and long-term value, not just short-term gain.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Bridge Financing<\/strong><\/td>\n 75.0<\/strong><\/td>\n Short-term, High-Yield Loan<\/td>\n Special situations debt funds or investment banks. Secured against Club assets. Term: 12-24 months. Interest Rate: 10-12%.<\/td>\n Provides the bulk of the cash needed to make the offer unconditional. It is expensive but necessary to move quickly. This debt will be refinanced post-takeover.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Club’s Own Cash<\/strong><\/td>\n 30.0<\/strong><\/td>\n Internal Funding<\/td>\n Utilised post-takeover, but can be pledged as security for the bridge financing.<\/td>\n Demonstrates that the Club’s own resources are part of the solution.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Fan Equity Campaign<\/strong><\/td>\n 9.5<\/strong><\/td>\n Ordinary “One Member, One Vote” Shares<\/td>\n Launched\u00a0after<\/em>\u00a0the takeover is announced but before it completes, to demonstrate mass support and raise additional funds. Tiers: \u00a3250, \u00a3500, \u00a31,000.<\/td>\n This is the political and emotional core of the bid. It proves the takeover has a mandate from the fans and can be used to pressure remaining shareholders.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n ![](\"https:\/\/grouperlab.blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/catchcar1.gif\")
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