Celtic Diary Friday June 19: Police Inaction

With little else except “Hey footballs  back , put a bet on 2 to write about, the rumour mill seems to have gone into overdrive, though some aren’t pausing for thought before turning their views into news.

Moussa Dembele, for instance, has been linked with a reunion with Brendan Rodgers at Leicester, which clearly shows the writer has absolutely no knowledge of the relationship between the two.

Dembele left Celtic and famously slammed Rodgers for not being a man of his word, something that we’ve all come to realise in the months since, and any reports to the effect of a move to the midlands can be treated with disdain.

The big story on Scotland concerns the recent riots in George Square as hundreds of “patriots ” decided to attack refugees protesting for better living conditions, safe in the knowledge the press would give them a platform to air their views and not condemn their actions.

Most media outlets went with the “rival protesters clash ” headline, which is clearly nonsense, while the Scottish Protestants Against Discrimination added tgeir somewhat overvalued tuppence worth….

They do seem to face a lot of negative spin, though perhaps a clue as to why would be to watch the videos of their actions, and see if they can make a connection.

A connection  missed almost entirely by the media…

Note the use of quotation marks to legitimise the presence of the thugs….

The police federation chucked in their opinion as well, which was even more bizarre than the SPAD’s….

I’m not quite sure what they are trying to say here, but I am certain they are not saying

“we are going to scrutinise video evidence and arrest thise responsible for the violence and intimidation during a peaceful protest. “

That is beyond doubt, and here I will expres a little sympathy for the police, all the way from the hinest bobby to the chief inspector.

It’s not their fault. It’s a dangerous job, it’s largely an unrewarding job.

Especially financially, as the wages are relatively poor for the remit of the position.

And therefore the job should pay more.

Because if you pay peanuts, you get monkeys, though one suspects a gathering of gibbons would perform better than the boys in blue we have at the moment.

Of course, one sensitive club/company weren’t happy at what some were saying about them ….

If the club/company do prosecute, they’d better hope a tape recording of the Ibrox crowd isn’t played, whilst a list of Famous Irish Catholic Players 1900-2000 is read out…

Another deeply sensitive club have taken on the persecution complex of Ibrox and have decided to sue the SPFL for £8m of losses, and although Hearts may struggle to actually explain how they came to that figure, it shows that the siege mentality is now the way forward for clubs who think they automatically deserve a seat at the top table.

Perhaps it’s their mentality, although one suspects that as its widely known the tv contract with Sky that demands four Old firm games, despite the liquidation of one Old firm club, take place every season.

Maybe they have noted that Scottish football has lost all pretence of sporting integrity, and just want their share of the money on offer.

Listening to an old podcast the other night, we mentioned the row over the two semi finals on the same day, which was between the SPFL and the SFA, which at the time was noted as Round One of their duel for power…the second round taking place right now.

Neil Doncaster has been elevated to a position within UEFA that deals with sporting ethics, showing that despite their rather dour public image, they do have a sense of humour.

Speaking of UEFA, with the Champions League not yet finished but about to start befoire it does, let’s ask the man who knows about these things to explain it…Moravcik 67 on twitter

With yesterday’s UEFA meeting finally giving us some details about how the Champions League will look in 20/21, it’s time to have a look at what Celtic might face in the qualifiers. Warning. Contains a shit load of speculation to go alongside what we already know. 

First up, a recap. UEFA announced that for the 20/21 season – the access list will stay the same. – QR1-QR3 will be played as one-off games, with a 2 leg playoff. – home or away will be luck of the draw So Celtic will start in QR1 and play 5 games to reach the group stage. 

Key qualifying dates are QR1 – 18/19 August QR2 – 25/26 August QR3 – 15/16 September PO – 22/23 & 29/30 September The dates for the draws haven’t been announced. Associations have until 3rd August to confirm participants, so the QR1 draw can’t be before then 

 It wasn’t confirmed yesterday, but it’s highly likely that the normal seeding system will be used. Celtic are guaranteed to be seeded up to QR3. We’re not yet guaranteed to be seeded in the playoff. I’ll come back to this later, as it’s now a bit more complicated that normal.  

What follows is based current standings in each of the European leagues, and assumes that the seeded teams win each tie. That never works out in reality, and will be less likely to this season – given the one-off games, and home advantage being down to luck. 

It’s also based on the default access list that defines the round a team starts in. This can (and nearly always does) change depending on who wins the CL and EL the season before. Again, I’ll come back to this later, as it’s far more complicated this season. 

This is how the draw for QR1 might look. Teams in green have already qualified for the CL. As you’d expect, it doesn’t look too bad. But everything in QR1-3 needs to be looked by considering that we might have to play any of these teams away from home in a one-off tie. 

An away tie against the Sweden/Belarus champion looks toughest. Cypriot champ Omonia Nicosia could become unseeded if the right combination of higher ranked clubs from Slovenia, Macedonia, Armenia & Albania win their leagues. It’s unlikely, but still possible 

Next up, QR2. Things start to get a little harder at this point. Cluj, Omonia and St Gallen would probably be the ones to avoid. Again, an away draw could turn what would normally be considered straight forward into something a bit more tricky. 

Important note! There’s 7 days between QR1 and QR2, so the draw for QR2 will almost certainly be made before QR1 is played. It means teams can’t go from being unseeded to seeded after QR1 is played. Cluj, etc, would stay unseeded regardless of how many seeds lost in QR1.  

QR3. Getting to the serious stuff now. None of them look particularly appealing if we have to play them away, so a home tie here could be so imporant. There’s a decent chance at least some will have been knocked out in previous rounds, which might soften the round up a bit. 

Note that there’s a 3 week gap between QR2 and QR3. This allows the QR3 draw to be made after QR2 is played – allowing a reshuffling of the seeds based on coefficient. So any of the teams listed an unseeded here could become seeded if teams ranked above them are eliminated. 

Finally, the playoff. Again, there are tough ties here. But at least it’s over two legs. The QR3-PO games are played over successive weeks, so there draw for the PO will be made before QR3 plays. This again prevents clubs who would be unseeded from becoming seeded after QR3. 

Some other points. If eliminated in QR1-3 we drop into the next stage of the EL – where we could only meet other champions who have also been knocked out of CL qualifying. Elimination at the CL PO would get us an EL group stage spot. All EL qualifiers are one-off games. 

Will Celtic be seeded in all rounds? At this point I’d say it’s pretty likely, but not certain. Seeding is based on a club’s own coefficient. Higher coefficient = higher ranking = better chance of being seeded. Celtic are ranked 43rd in Europe. 

There are only 5 other clubs who are ranked above us and who could be in the Champions Route of qualifying – Ajax, Basel, Salzburg, Olympiacos and Copenhagen. If 4 of them win their league and make the playoff then we’d be unseeded. 

Salzburg and Olympiacos look good to win their league. Ajax will represent the Netherlands. Basel are 5pts back, and Copenhagen could be 11pts back later this evening. So to be unseeded requires either Basel or Copenhagen to overturn their deficit, and all 4 to reach the PO.  

This is where it might get confusing. There’s a chance Ajax won’t need to qualify if the 19/20 CL winner also qualifies for the group stage via their league. In effect, they would have qualified for the groups twice – leaving an unused group place. Ajax would fill it. 

Normally, we’d know by now if that was the case, and I’d be able to tell you for certain that yes, Ajax won’t have to qualify. But I can’t do that this year because we won’t know who has won the CL until after QR1 has been played. 

This doesn’t just affect Ajax. Taking Ajax out the qualifiers leaves the playoff round 1 team short. This is fixed by letting other teams skip a round – this year Serbia, Cyprus, Czech Republic and Croatia would all start 1 round later. 

But as we won’t know the CL winner until after QR1 is played it means teams who would normally have skipped QR1 now won’t be able to. So any adjustment to the structure of qualifying caused by putting Ajax straight into the groups will have to happen during the qualifiers. 

At present I have no idea how UEFA will fix this if the adjustment is required. They have to do something otherwise they will be 1 team short in the group stage. There are several option. They might go with 7 teams in the playoff round, and give one team a bye. 

Or they might adjust things in the 3 weeks between QR2 and QR3 to ensure there are 8 teams in the playoffs. This would involve giving a couple of teams a bye in QR3. However they handle it, it could mean Celtic have to wait to be sure that they’ll be seeded in all rounds. 

The earliest they can know for certain if there’s a spare spot is Aug 7/8 – if Juve beat Lyon. At worst they might not know until after the CL final on Aug 23. Of course UEFA might go down a completely different route and fill the CL/EL title holder spots some other way. 

I haven’t covered everything here. There are still plenty of unknowns at this point. And the potential opponents listed above will likely change over the next month or so. It’s going to an interesting year, with more pitfalls. We can’t afford even a single off night.

Seems straightforward enough….

Caption competition from yesterday….

Today…